Thursday, July 23, 2026
Underdogs covered the runline 5-0 and won outright 3-2 across 5 graded games. Below: the slate result, the plays our models fired — full stake and reduced (provisional) stake — and the games our discipline guard told us to pass.
Actionable plays
No plays qualified today. A documented pass is a position too.
Model track record (season to date)
| Model | Runline record | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| Full-stake plays (Rule A/B) | 53-34 | 60.9% |
| Reduced-stake plays (line-cooling) | 125-65 | 65.8% |
How to read this: the totals above are season-to-date and include our pre-launch backtest (Mar 27–May 11), when these rules were still being fit to past data — so they overstate what was bettable in real time. The honest out-of-sample record, since the rules locked on May 12: full-stake plays 25-27 (48.1%), reduced-stake plays 113-58 (66.1%). Records are recomputed straight from our logged game-by-game data every night. Stand-down (WATCH) results — 9-6 this season — are excluded entirely, even though they'd improve the headline.
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